Darmawan, Soni and Claudia, Aprilia and Tridawati, Anggun (2022) Prediksi Perubahan Kawasan Hutan Mangrove Menggunakan Model Cellular Automata Markov pada Citra Penginderaan Jauh Landsat (Studi Kasus: Kawasan Resort Bama, Taman Nasional Baluran, Kabupaten Situbondo, Jawa Timur). Rekayasa Hijau: Jurnal Teknologi Ramah Lingkungan, 6 (1). pp. 57-72. ISSN 2579-4264

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Abstract

Taman Nasional Baluran is a conservation park that is experiencing mangrove degradation. Mangrove restoration efforts need to be carried out to support the Regional Regulation of Situbondo Regency No. 6 of 2014. This study aims to calculate the extent of changes in mangrove forest areas every year and in the predicted year. This study used an integrated Markov Chain and Cellular Automata model to simulate land use change for the period 2000 and 2020 and predict mangrove land use for the period 2030. Remote sensing technology was used to analyze land use through Landsat satellite imagery (2000, 2010, and 2020). The results showed that mangrove land cover decreased by 0.5% in 2000 – 2010 and increased by 3.5% in 2010 – 2020. Mangrove area continues to increase in 2020 – 2030, which is 9.3% or 122 Ha. The application of the CA-Markov model to predict land cover shows a standard value of 0.8 which means that the modeling is scientifically accepted. Keywords: Mangrove, Markov, Celullar Automata, Kstandar

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