Darmawan, Soni and NASING, ELYSABETH NINDY and TRIDAWATI, ANGGUN (2022) Prediksi Perubahan Kawasan Hutan Mangrove Menggunakan Model Land Change Modeler Berbasis Citra Satelit Penginderaan Jauh (Studi Kasus: Pantai Kelurahan Oesapa Barat, Kota Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur). Jurnal Tekno Insentif, 16 (1). pp. 54-68. ISSN 1907-4964

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Abstract

Oesapa Barat Village is a sub-district in Kelapa Lima District, Kupang City, Indonesia where has a large mangrove forest but continues to decline by human activities, therefore the protection of mangroves is urgent. The purpose of this study was to determine mangroves' changes in 1996, 2006, 2016, and predict them in 2026. Remote sensing technology was used to analyze land use through Landsat satellite imagery (1996, 2006, and 2016). This research uses the integration of Landsat image to obtain land cover classification and land change modeler to analyze and predict mangrove land change patterns. The prediction results using land change modeler showed that there was a trend of increasing mangrove area by 17.64 ha in 1996, 18.90 ha in 2006, 19.80 ha in 2016, and 20.52 ha in 2026. The increase in mangrove areas was caused by the success of this activity. rehabilitation in the form of planting mangroves in West Oesapa Village Beach in 2002. Keywords: Mangrove, Landsat, Land Change Modeler

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